Ottawa and Alberta are about to go to war. Alberta will lose.

When Jean Chrétien finally confirmed yesterday that the federal government will ratify the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, the Prime Minister accepted that Alberta Premier Ralph Klein might go so far as to invoke the Constitution's notwithstanding clause in his fight against the accord.

But Mr. Chrétien has accepted that challenge, partly because he knows neither he nor Mr. Klein is likely to be in office during the final rounds, partly because federal Liberals don't really care much any more about Alberta, and mostly because Mr. Chrétien knows Alberta can't win.

Normally, the Alberta government would have an effective veto over Ottawa's ability to implement the accord, at least within Alberta's jurisdiction. After all, the provincial governments are constitutionally responsible for natural resources, including both air and oil.

And no one should doubt the Alberta animus toward Kyoto. The province relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity, and its oil sector, the bedrock of its economy, will suffer if industry and automobiles are forced to burn cleaner fuel.

No wonder Alberta politicians are sympathetic to the views of a minority of scientists who insist either that the threat of global warming is unproven, or that meeting Kyoto's targets will have little impact on the phenomenon.
But Ottawa has the unquestioned right to sign international treaties, which also gives it the right to enact their provisions. To meet Kyoto's emission-reduction goals, the federal government may need both to exploit its own sphere of jurisdiction -- for example, by raising taxes on fossil-fuel consumption -- and by intruding on the provincial sphere, say by legislatively compelling emission reductions.

The Alberta government might challenge such legislation in the courts, and might even invoke the Constitution's notwithstanding clause if the legislation is upheld. But politically, it must ultimately lose, because Edmonton has no firm ally in any important provincial capital.

British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell will not come to the aid of his western brother because B.C. stands to benefit from Kyoto, thanks to its hydroelectric-power sources. The same holds true of Quebec Premier Bernard Landry.

The Quebec legislature already has endorsed signing the protocol, partly because most Quebeckers are worried about global warming, and partly because Quebec's hydroelectric potential could turn it into the Saudi Arabia of water.

That leaves Ontario. Ottawa rarely moves on a major item unless it has Ontario's support. One reason Mr. Chrétien took so long to make up his mind on Kyoto was that Mike Harris, when he was premier, vowed to stand with Alberta in opposing the accord.

After all, Kyoto could do great damage to the Ontario economy, because the province's manufacturers rely on cheap energy, and especially because Kyoto puts Ontario's auto sector at risk. The United States will not sign Kyoto, and if increased energy costs and tougher emission controls render automobile production uncompetitive in Ontario as a result, then plants will close.

That is why Mr. Harris sided with Mr. Klein. But the new Premier, Ernie Eves, is trying to be more conciliatory. Polls show most Ontarians are worried about global warming. Besides, Mr. Eves would like to lower the level of tension with Ottawa. He hopes to play the role of mediator, supporting the accord in principle while exacting as much financial compensation for Ontario and Alberta as possible.

If Mr. Klein wants to win this fight, he and his Alliance allies will have to take their campaign to Toronto and Cambridge and London and Windsor. They will have to convince the Mississauga advertising account executive that Kyoto could cost her her job, since Acme auto parts is one of her accounts.

Mr. Chrétien is obviously convinced he has won over that account executive, and all the other white-collar suburban workers in Southern Ontario on whose support his government depends. His successor should hope he's right.

When Alberta loses the Kyoto fight, the only real price that Canada will pay -- apart from the economic one -- will be the further estrangement of a crucial western province from the federation. But then, sticking it to Alberta has been a Liberal tactic for years, and the country's still together. Sort of.

jibbitson@globeandmail.ca