OTTAWA -- By Sunday it had become clear beyond debate that, in the national interest, Prime Minister Jean Chrétien should step down as soon as practically possible. He will not. In consequence, the government now faces 15 months of virtual policy paralysis.

The weekend went badly for the Prime Minister. As provincial governments consulted with each other about solidifying a common front against ratification of the Kyoto accord on global warming, a national advertising campaign by corporate anti-Kyoto interests arrived on television screens. (I've seen it six times, and I don't watch much TV.) The ads will help to shift volatile public opinion into opposition to the protocol.

Then, on Sunday, two Liberal MPs publicly predicted that more than 20 Liberal MPs would side with the opposition, ensuring Mr. Chrétien's defeat, and that Paul Martin would be one of them.

Finally, Finance Minister John Manley announced that, barring some Damascene conversion, he would oppose any attempt to raise taxes for extra health-care funding. Since he is projecting a surplus of only $1-billion next year, and since Roy Romanow's report can be expected to echo Senator Michael Kirby's call for at least $4-billion in immediate additional funding, the chances of any major reforms in 2003 now appear remote.

Meanwhile, Defence Minister John McCallum is edging as close to the line as he dares in publicly warning that, unless the Defence Department receives a substantial infusion of extra cash (somewhere around $1-billion would be a good start), Canada's military will fall below the threshold of competence to fulfill its existing mandate of homeland defence and international peacekeeping, let alone take on any new obligations such as participating in a war against Iraq.

And September's make-believe Throne Speech commitments to a major national program of urban renewal, including new investments in public housing and public transportation, increasingly look like a Potemkin program.

It was always an ambitious agenda. With the caucus in revolt, the provinces once again coalescing against him, and his cabinet members increasingly looking to their own political futures, Mr. Chrétien now has, quite simply, only the most limited ability to govern.

The Prime Minister did the best he could yesterday to stabilize the front, mostly by withdrawing to the last line of defence. Caucus could vote against him if they wanted, he said in St. John's. The only vote in the future he would treat as a vote of confidence would be on next February's budget.

By late yesterday, it appeared caucus had reached a compromise in which all Liberals would vote in support of the opposition motion, and the Prime Minister would stay out of the House. Call it 169 for, 0 against, 1 humiliation.

There will be similar threats of rebellion, and last-minute compromises, in the coming months, as the Liberals war among themselves while trying to avoid handing the opposition parties victories.

But in terms of actual government -- the putative reason we pay all those taxes and obey all those laws -- what can we expect? Not much.

We can expect the non-ratification ratification of Kyoto. That is, the House will endorse the accord in a vote before Christmas.

But with the provinces and, increasingly, public opinion -- especially in Ontario -- turning against the accord, the government will leave the details of implementation to a future administration, which means years of delay before real steps are taken to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions, and with the cost all the higher for that delay.

We can also expect some measures to increase the federal contribution to health care, and perhaps some kind of national auditing system, but no real restructuring will get under way before mid-decade, except for what the provinces do on their own. There will be equally token funding for infrastructure and the like. And we will be distracted with sexy but peripheral initiatives such as studies into same-sex marriages and decriminalizing marijuana. The government will also pick fights with the Americans, which is always good sport and takes people's minds off the travails of the day.

But this federal government will attempt nothing substantial between now and spring, 2004 -- yes, a long way away, isn't it? -- because the governing party is in a protracted leadership race, the Finance Minister has battened down the fiscal hatches, and a back-bench MP, Mr. Martin, holds a greater sway over the caucus than the Prime Minister himself.

We could end this period of paralysis sooner, of course, by changing the leadership of the government at a time that best suits the needs of the party and the people.

But apparently the government of Canada, at least in respect of its leadership, operates in the interest of one man's whim. He wants to stay until the last possible day. There's no way to stop him. Let's hope nothing important comes up in the next 15 months that actually requires this government to act.
jibbitson@globeandmail.ca