
By HASSAN YUSSUFF
Tuesday, November 12, 2002
Page A21
Working people know that ratifying the Kyoto Protocol is the right thing to do. We know that we are only borrowing the future from our children and we care deeply about their health and the environment we will leave behind.
It's the right thing to do, but it won't be easy. While the direct impacts of Kyoto on the economy and jobs will be modest, moving to a more sustainable economy means real costs, which must be recognized by governments in a "Just Transition" plan.
The near hysteria in some business and political circles over Kyoto's estimated economic impacts and job losses is self-serving, but has also been fuelled by Ottawa's failure to come up with a detailed implementation plan.
Ratifying Kyoto means we must reduce emissions, not that we must follow a particular path to that goal. It's misleading for Premier Ralph Klein and the oil and gas industry to assume that the burden falls on them. A sensible plan requires greater energy efficiency of all industries -- and households, too.
Economic models that make reasonable assumptions, such as the introduction of a national emissions-trading system and Canadian purchase of international emissions credits, find that a probable negative impact is in the order of 1 per cent of GDP, a decade from now -- not a huge price to pay given the huge costs of climate change. Some models suggest we may even be better off, because reducing emissions will save money for many businesses. Either way, we must act at some point, and there are economic advantages to getting out ahead of Washington.
When it comes to jobs, there are grounds for real optimism. Many models find that the job gains will exceed job losses. While energy-intensive industries are also very capital-intensive and provide few direct jobs, Kyoto will boost labour-intensive green industries.
A sensible implementation plan will reduce emissions by expanding public transit systems, retrofitting houses and commercial buildings for greater energy efficiency, introducing tougher building codes, switching from coal to gas for electricity generation, investing in renewable energy sources, producing more efficient vehicles, modifying industrial processes, and so on. Public and private investment needed to switch to a less wasteful and more energy efficient economy will create jobs, lots of jobs.
That said, there will be transition costs. With no implementation plan, we don't know what they'll be. But emissions caps on the primary energy sector are probable, and could mean slower development of the oil sands and non-conventional oil and gas reserves. Very energy-intensive industries, such as iron and steel, could face higher costs and reduced production if the U.S. continues to do nothing about climate change.
The Canadian Labour Congress and major Canadian unions, including the biggest in the energy sector, say we should ratify Kyoto, while ensuring that fully funded transition policies for workers are put in place. While job gains will likely outweigh losses, we'll need to retrain workers, help them move to expanding sectors, or compensate them for job loss or lower wages.
If we implement Kyoto wisely, the burden of emissions reduction will be gradual and equitably shared. If we do it badly, workers and some regions will suffer. We should ratify -- keeping the impacts on workers and their families in mind in deciding how we meet our targets. A "Just Transition" must be a central to the Kyoto implementation plan.
Hassan Yussuff is secretary-treasurer of the Canadian Labour Congress.
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