Notice the deafening silence from the anti-Kyoto tom-toms since well before the official signing of the protocol to limit greenhouse-gas emissions this week?

All through the parliamentary debate and the to-ing and fro-ing of Ottawa officials to hold hands with the so-called heavy emitters, there was not a peep from the Canadian Coalition for Responsible Environmental Solutions, the group formed as a front for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers and other business lobby groups. After weeks of silence, the coalition put out a small squib after the 195-77 vote in the Commons saying it was necessary to remain vigilant.

The coalition was born shortly after Prime Minister Jean Chrétien reaffirmed his government's intention to ratify Kyoto at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in September. The midwife was National Public Relations, a large communications firm that won the contract to bring the oil patch together with manufacturers and exporters and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

And oh did the coalition members huff and puff at the beginning. Gwyn Morgan, chief executive officer of EnCana Corp. and the poster boy for the anti-Kyoto campaign because he heads the largest Canadian-controlled oil company, warned the government's approach to Kyoto amounted to "economic self-mutilation."

The Canadian Association of Manufacturers and Exporters released an estimate that abiding by the Kyoto emission limits would cost the country 450,000 jobs. And the coalition bought $225,000 a week of television airtime to "stop the rush to Kyoto."

The coalition also leaked a letter that purportedly came from the chairman of the Investment Dealers Association addressed to the Prime Minister warning that senior U.S. equity analysts and portfolio managers believed implementing the protocol would harm the economy and cause Wall Street to rethink energy-sector investments in Canada.

Then in late November the drums became muffled, and it is interesting to speculate why. The answer seems to be a combination of hyperbole from the coalition and some deft moves by the federal government after months of mishandling the file.

At first few people in the oil patch, the business community or even in the Liberal cabinet appreciated how serious Mr. Chrétien was about ratification. They just didn't believe it would happen, even though he had been consistent since 1997. Even after international negotiations to recognize carbon sinks and establish an emissions-trading scheme, the opponents thought the problem would just go away if they ignored it.

Finally galvanized, the opponents went over the top. The manufacturers and exporters estimate of 450,000 jobs lost was quickly discredited because it was methodologically flawed. The television advertising aimed at Ontario voters and Ontario MPs had little impact.

The leaked letter also backfired because it was a draft prepared by the coalition that it hoped it could get signed. The Investment Dealers Association disowned it. It is worth noting the Calgary boss of National Public Relations refuses to return phone calls about what role her firm may have had.

On the government side, the departments of energy and environment scrambled to put together a plan to blunt the criticism. But the coup de grâce was a promise to the heavy-emitter industries that their cost of adjusting would be capped at $15 a tonne (a guarantee I am reliably informed was the brainchild of Natural Resources Canada and Environment Canada but not blessed by cabinet until after the fact).

But it seems to have worked. The Prime Minister has kept his commitment and even EnCana's Mr. Morgan said he was "cautiously positive." The maximum impact "is not going to be as bad as everybody expected." There must be a lot of red faces around the Canadian Coalition for Responsible Environmental Solutions and at National Public Relations as a result.
hwinsor@globeandmail.ca