CALGARY -- A January chinook that pushed the mercury to a record-breaking high of 16.3 in Calgary yesterday normally would be a welcome break from winter, but here, as in many parts of the prairies, this has barely been a winter.

Now weather watchers, crop producers and ranchers are wondering whether warm temperatures and little snowfall will mean another drought -- in some cases for a third straight year -- in the West.

"Last year at about this time people were saying, 'We've never had two back-to-back severe droughts on the prairies,' " said Bruce Burnett, director of weather and crop surveillance for the Canadian Wheat Board. "I certainly wouldn't want to say it too loudly that there's no way we could have three years."

Like bad luck, Mr. Burnett said, prairie droughts now look bound to happen in threes.

The West, particularly Alberta and Western Saskatchewan, is going through a typical El Nino winter, caused by a slowing of the prevailing trade winds.

The phenomenon has meant temperatures higher than normal and zero to low snow cover in areas that have experienced severe drought for the past two years, a recent report by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration noted.

Indeed, Environment Canada is predicting above-normal temperatures through February for about 75 per cent of the country and below-normal precipitation across the country over the same period.

(The normal high for Calgary yesterday would have been -5.2, but instead the temperature broke the record of 13.3, set in 1914. That was among about 10 record highs set across the province and half a dozen set in Saskatchewan. Another day of unusual heat is expected today before a cold front moves in tomorrow.)

In Canada's agricultural heartland, too little precipitation could mean a paltry water supply come spring and summer, and the above-average temperatures could mean that even where there is snow, it could melt too early to be of much use.

"The southern areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan could therefore face water- supply problems for irrigation, domestic and animal use," the PFRA report said.

British Columbia's Interior, which has barely recovered from the past few years of dry conditions, also faces water-supply problems, the report said.

Ray Keller, team leader of river forecasting with Alberta Environment, said the total precipitation in the province for November and December was 30 to 60 per cent below normal and the snow pack in the mountains is 60 to 70 per cent below average for this time of year.

Testing by his colleagues at Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development has found soil moisture levels at an all-time low.

"They look at total precipitation as well in the province and have determined that right now this is the driest cycle that we've been in, in about 120 years," Mr. Keller said.

Bone-dry soil conditions are also plaguing parts of Saskatchewan, officials said.

Some say that even if the heavens open with dumps of snow, it may be too late for portions of the West that haven't had a chance to recover from two years of drought.

"The chances aren't that great that you're going to get enough precipitation in the form of snow that it's going to turn the situation around," Mr. Burnett said.

Aston Chipanshi, a PFRA climatologist in Regina, said higher-than-average snowfall and falling temperatures are needed to avoid another devastating growing season. He looks to historical data for consolation.

In the past, serious droughts have not continued for three years in a row, Mr. Chipanshi said. "That's the glimmer of hope we have."

In the meantime, there is not much producers can do but hope the next few months will bring snow and rain to fill dugouts and to give spring seeding a chance.

"We're relying on Mother Nature," Mr. Keller said.