Such was Ontarians' desire for fresh leadership last October that Dalton McGuinty probably would have won the election handily even without his famous pledge to balance the budget. A promise to manage prudently and honestly would likely have sufficed.
But Mr. McGuinty, deft Liberal campaigner that he has become, left nothing to chance. In addition to making 231 promises costing $5.8-billion, he mounted a stage at a critical juncture in the campaign and scrawled his signature beneath the following statement: "I, Dalton McGuinty, leader of the Liberal Party of Ontario, promise, if my party is elected as the next government, that I will: Not raise taxes or implement any new taxes without the explicit consent of Ontario voters; and not run deficits."
It was superb political theatre. With one stroke of the pen, he disarmed all those who had claimed the Liberals would be inept fiscal stewards, including the ferociously conservative Canadian Taxpayers Federation. Indeed, next to former premier Ernie Eves, with his farcical Magna-plant budget and chicken-in-every-pot platform, Mr. McGuinty began to look like the more sober leader. For the Tories, that was a blade between the shoulders.
It was also, as it turns out, just the beginning of Mr. McGuinty's madcap fiscal-policy tour, which has seen him flip from deficit hawk to dove to hawk and back to dove again, all in the space of five months.
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Immediately after his decisive win, Premier McGuinty began edging away from his promise. When asked directly when he would balance the books, he said he couldn't "speculate." Suddenly the door was open to red ink.
The tone changed, however, when former auditor Erik Peters revealed that provincial finances were in far rockier shape than anyone had expected, with a $5.6-billion deficit in the offing for this current fiscal year. Overnight, Mr. McGuinty recast himself as doomsayer-in-chief. In a lengthy discussion with this newspaper's editorial board in early January, he asserted that $2-billion in spending must go. There would be no sacred cows. Asset sales (possibly including TVOntario and the Liquor Control Board of Ontario), program cuts (possibly including seniors' drug benefits), toll roads, all were on the table. Nurses, doctors, teachers and others on the public payroll would have to "temper their requests, given the fiscal context and the difficult choices we have to make."
The strategy bombed. Seniors were outraged. Critics pointed out that selling the LCBO would be idiotic, since it turns a profit, and selling TVOntario would be impractical, since its market value is dubious. Sid Ryan, the conflict-addicted head of the Ontario wing of the Canadian Union of Public Employees, threatened total war.
But luckily for Ontario's new Premier, he had rigged himself a magical escape pod -- public consultations. This week, he and Finance Minister Greg Sorbara elucidated yet another new fiscal strategy, which they've gleaned from town-hall meetings around the province: A deficit this year, and next, and possibly the year after, wouldn't be such a big deal after all. A balanced budget is still the goal, says Mr. Sorbara, but the Liberals won't have failed if they don't achieve it. And so another campaign promise, a central one this time, goes by the wayside.
In the short term, Mr. McGuinty may not suffer. He has taken the path of least resistance. Further out, the damage could be enormous. For if the Premier canbreak a pledge he signed in public, what promises can Ontarians be certain he'll keep?
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