The risk of wild fires on the Prairies is higher this spring because of below-normal precipitation over the winter and patches of the region which have been extremely dry over the past few years, Environment Canada said Wednesday.
“With a low snow-pack—that’s the important thing from what I understand about fire-moisture conditions—[it’s] not good news,” Jay Anderson, a meteorologist with Environment Canada in Winnipeg, told globeandmail.com on Wednesday.
Over the winter, Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan all experienced between 60 and 80 per cent lower-than-normal precipitation. Some patches of Alberta were as low as 57 per cent of normal precipitation. When the amount of moisture is less than 60 per cent of normal, Environment Canada considers it to be a drought.
“There certainly have been dry pockets. It looks like a set of measles on the Prairies when I look at the map,” Mr. Anderson said.
While moisture levels have improved during the first two weeks of April, and the summer forecast is for normal precipitation for most of the region, Mr. Anderson said he doubts it will be enough to make much of an impact.
“It suggests that there’s going to be some pretty serious forest fire conditions unless things change and we actually get heaver precipitation,” he said. The Prairie provinces need twice the normal precipitation in the spring to reduce the risk substantially, he said.
Manitoba’s Department of Conservation is already gearing up for the worst.
Bob Enns, manager of the fire program for the province, said the next few weeks until “green-up” are critical.
“[The fire risk] can be particularly hazardous this time of year,” he said. Thirty-two fires have been recorded to date in Manitoba this spring.
Primary areas of concern are the eastern region, the Interlake Region in the south and the south-western region.
The province has fire crews in place along with nine aircraft, including several water bombers, he said.
Mr. Enns said while there were more fires at this time last year, the province really needs “one big pile of rain.” As well, the risk is lowered somewhat when the trees get their leaves, which Mr. Enns predicts will happen around the first two weeks of May.
The situation in Alberta, meanwhile, has improved since the first few months of winter when there was little snow, a provincial wildfire information officer said.
"We've had a really rough five years in Alberta with extended [periods] of extreme fire hazard and a lack of winter precipitation," said Patrick Loewen.
But he said thanks to heavy snow in March, moisture levels are up.
If the trend continues, the province should be in fairly good shape this spring, Mr. Loewen said.
"April is a make-it-or-break-it month," he said.
However, currently across Alberta, the fire danger is currently low, he said.
The Environment Canada forecast to the end of May shows normal to above normal precipitation across Alberta and Saskatchewan and most of Manitoba. For the summer months to the end of August, Alberta and Saskatchewan are predicted to have above normal precipitation while Manitoba is expected to have lower precipitation.
