The federal government's proposal to allow same-sex couples to marry legally would be in danger of going down to defeat if a free vote were held in the House of Commons today.
Informal tallies show that at least 126 MPs intend to vote against legalizing same-sex marriages, leaving opponents only 25 votes short of the 151 needed to defeat the bill. According to an updated Globe and Mail survey of Liberal MPs, 60 members have yet to say or decide how they would vote, making the battle for their support crucial as Prime Minister Jean Chrétien meets with his caucus next week in North Bay.
And a study posted on the Web site for an advocacy group known as Equal Marriage for Same-Sex couples found 158 against and 143 in support of or leaning toward the idea. The results were culled from e-mail interviews and surveys and urges people to lobby MPs to ensure the measure passes.
However, even if the government loses the vote, it won't mean that gays and lesbians cannot be married in Ontario and British Columbia, where courts have already approved it. To outlaw it, the federal government would have to take a second and controversial step of invoking the Constitution's notwithstanding clause to get around the court decisions. Even some MPs who oppose the legislation say they would be loath to invoke the clause.
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However, the Prime Minister's hopes for a victory in the vote, which has yet to be scheduled, grew murkier yesterday when 11 of 15 Progressive Conservative MPs meeting in Stratford, Ont., added their names to those against the idea.
"I'm against redefining marriage. Marriage, in my opinion, is a sacred institution," said Norman Doyle, Tory MP for St. John's East.
The Tory caucus was predicted to be more evenly split on the issue, with the party's social progressives expected to endorse the change. But many of those MPs, who are mostly from largely rural ridings, say they cannot accept a change in the definition of marriage.
The party's small numbers in the House of Commons normally do not decide votes on legislation. But with the two sides of the debate almost neck and neck, their heavy opposition could defeat the bill.
Only four Tory MPs said they will vote for same-sex marriage: former leader Joe Clark, Quebec MP André Bachand, Manitoba's Rick Borotsik and Scott Brison, the gay Nova Scotia MP who placed fourth in the Tories' May leadership vote.
Some of the Tory MPs who lean left on social issues, such as New Brunswick's John Herron, who represents the largely rural Fundy Royal riding, say they favour civil unions but not same-sex marriage.
The Canadian Alliance, with 63 MPs, is expected to vote solidly against same-sex marriage. And 51 Liberal MPs have told The Globe they oppose the bill.
With the 11 Conservatives, that makes 125 votes against, while independent former Saskatchewan Alliance MP Jim Pankiw is also expected to vote against. The NDP, with 14 members, is expected to support the bill, as are most of the 34 Bloc Québécois MPs.
Yesterday, the government launched an offensive to promote the bill, with Justice Minister Martin Cauchon leading the charge.
"[Gays and lesbians] are entirely part of the society," Mr. Cauchon said in an interview. "In telling them that their union doesn't have less value than a heterosexual union, that their love doesn't have less value than the love of a heterosexual couple, that their family doesn't have less value, that their kids don't have less value, as well. It's a question of dignity."
Mr. Chrétien is also expected to make a strong interjection when the caucus meets next week. And the government is also counting on Andy Scott, the former solicitor-general who heads the justice committee, to make a plea for the bill. Mr. Scott has been deeply involved in discussions with religious groups and others in an attempt to sell the bill.
But back-bench Liberal MPs were still looking for ways to change the legislation, including the possibility that the government would recognize no marriages, only domestic unions of both heterosexual and homosexual couples.
John McKay, a Toronto member of the caucus, said he wants to see the government keep marriage for heterosexuals and domestic unions for gays. He said he would consider supporting the use of the notwithstanding clause to get around an Ontario court decision that says not allowing gays and lesbians to get married is unconstitutional.
Imposition of the notwithstanding clause is considered extremely controversial and it is rarely done.
The study was done for the same-sex couple advocacy organization by Clayton Chrusch, a gay Ontario man who plans to get married later this fall.
Mr. Chrusch, a 27-year-old computer science student, said his results were culled from several sources, including e-mails from some MPs who classified themselves as undecided and past voting patterns.
The federal government announced it would introduce same-sex-marriage legislation after courts in Ontario, Quebec and B.C. found marriage laws forbidding same-sex unions discriminatory.
Draft legislation has been referred to the Supreme Court of Canada to ensure it is constitutional. Some MPs want the government to also ask the Supreme Court about the constitutionality of civil unions.
Liberal MP Roger Gallaway and Senator Anne Cools are planning to announce today that they are seeking intervenor status in the Supreme Court reference. Kitchener MP Karen Redman said she has circulated a letter to the Prime Minister, Mr. Cauchon and fellow MPs recommending that the government leave marriage to religious organizations.
She said, however, that she would probably vote for the bill.
But Mr. Cauchon refused to budge on the word marriage, saying that terming same-sex unions as anything else would create a separate class for gays.
"I strongly believe, as well, that marriage is a unique institution with a special meaning that it is important for all the people in our society to be part of that institution."
Mr. Cauchon is also scheduled to speak to the Canadian Bar Association in Montreal next week.
MP Lynn Myers of Waterloo-Wellington said he is glad Mr. Cauchon is defending his decision.
"It sounds like he's coming out swinging," he said.
But Pat O'Brien, Liberal MP for London-Fanshawe who opposes the bill, said the Justice Minister can say little that will change his position.
"It's very late in the game," Mr. O'Brien said. "It's not going to change my mind."
Mr. Myers said he has never seen a political issue that has so divided his constituents in the rural community of St. Jacobs, Ont.
"It's been a very difficult summer. We've been getting an earful."
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