Last Monday, at a hotel attached to Pearson Airport, a group of supporters met to nail down the strategy for Mike Harris's leadership campaign. It was, said a reliable source, exhilarating.
The money was comfortably in place, thanks to Mr. Harris's close ties with the Ontario corporate community. The policies had already been laid out, based on the Common Sense Revolution manifesto that took Mr. Harris to power in 1995. The communications and campaign strategies were well advanced.
Everyone at that meeting was convinced they had a candidate and a plan that would take Mr. Harris to the leadership of a united Conservative Party of Canada, and one day to 24 Sussex Dr.
Sunday, Mike Harris pulled the plug.
By all accounts, the former Ontario premier simply decided he was enjoying life too much to put himself and his family through the ordeal. Mr. Harris stepped down as premier in 2002 because the job of premier had clearly lost its appeal. Though tempted by the federal scene—and fervently encouraged by his supporters—in the end it just wasn't worth it.
But if Mr. Harris slept well last night, those behind the campaign to unite the Conservative and Alliance parties must have been pacing their darkened halls. For the blow that his loss has dealt to the movement might well prove crippling.
Consider: With Mr. Harris's withdrawal there is no longer any credible candidate from Ontario or Quebec for the leadership of this party. Former Ontario Tory cabinet ministers Tony Clement or Jim Flaherty might put their name in, but they lack national stature—and frankly, their curriculums vitae at the moment are less than impressive, what with the election loss and the $5.6-billion deficit and all.
Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative MP Scott Brison is thinking of running, if only to push the progressive social agenda that distinguished his party from the Alliance. Tory leader Peter MacKay might run, though he might also come to realize that odds against him are insurmountable. Calgary businessman Jim Prentice will probably run, though he did well in the Tory leadership race, the new party is not exactly short of representatives from Alberta.
The truth is, with one far-fetched possible exception, there is no one now who can stop Alliance Leader Stephen Harper from seizing the leadership of the party confirming the worst fears of Progressive Conservatives who suspected this union was, in fact, a takeover of the PCs by the Alliance.
Mr. Harper, who most journalists have written off as a reluctant leader ill-suited to public life, has in fact proven himself a superb political tactician. He wrested the leadership of the Alliance Party from Stockwell Day by arguing that only he, Stephen Harper, could save the party from being captured by religious zealots. Then, once in office, he placated the social conservatives by leading the campaign against same-sex marriage, arguing that homosexuality was, after all, more a question of behaviour than identity. Now it appears he may be on the verge of absconding with the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party as well. Even the Hapsburgs weren't this good at acquiring dynasties.
Successful tacticians, however, often make poor strategists. All of these manoeuvres will only deepen the suspicions of Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canadian voters who find either the Alliance's economic or its social policies distasteful. A single conservative Party under Stephen Harper may do no better than two fractured ones.
This is why conservatives from several different camps Sunday were attempting to resuscitate the idea of New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord entering the race. They recited, once again, his many strengths: popular in Atlantic Canada, with strong appeal in Quebec, and also eminently sellable in Ontario.
However, although the most far-fetched scenarios were offered, the fact remains that if Bernard Lord resigned his seat, the Conservative government would fall, and Liberals would take power in his province. Try to spin your way out of THAT one.
The truth is, there is no good way to spin Sunday's news. Mr. Harris was far from a perfect candidate - think Walkerton, Ipperwash, the Tory defeat, the sudden deficit - but with his departure the movement to provide a united, electable conservative alternative to the Liberals has suffered a serious blow, serious enough to make many Progressive Conservatives wonder if handing their party over to Stephen Harper really makes any sense.
Which is why David Orchard is also a happy man today.
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