Ottawa — Prime-minister-in-waiting Paul Martin will inherit a military that lacks the personnel and the equipment for the overseas missions that would normally be dictated by Canada's foreign policy, a report to be released Wednesday says.
Edited by Professor Douglas Bland of Queen's University, the report argues that the Canadian Forces will be unable to perform crucial functions in coming years — at home and abroad — because of the funding cutbacks of the 1990s.
When Mr. Martin was the minister of finance in 1995, he cut funds to the Department of National Defence by about $2-billion a year. As a result, DND was forced to dip into its capital budget, which is designed to build the Canadian Forces for the future, not to pay for day-to-day operations.
DND received a $1-billion boost to its annual budget this year, bringing it back to its 1993 level of $13-billion a year.
But the new report — called Canada Without Armed Forces? — says that military personnel and assets will keep deteriorating in coming years before the impact of the new money is felt and things start to improve.
The report, prepared with the Conference of Defence Associations, says this will affect Canada's ability to defend its territory and embark on overseas missions.
"The next government will be caught up in a cascading policy entanglement initiated by the rapid collapse of Canadian Forces core assets and core capabilities," the report says.
"Even if the next government were to provide nearly unlimited funds in an attempt to overcome this deficit, little can be done before the apprehended crisis becomes fact. The downward slope of the capabilities curve is too steep, and the slide is too fast."
In an interview, Defence Minister John McCallum rejected the argument that the Canadian Forces are teetering on the edge of irrelevance. However, Mr. McCallum acknowledged that the military will soon be limited in their deployments, after going through a wide variety of land, sea and air operations since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
"It is true that we have had large deployments. The navy, for example, has done a two-year marathon," he said.
Canada is in the midst of deploying almost 4,000 soldiers to Afghanistan over a one-year period, and the army will be looking to catch its breath afterward.
"We cannot sustain the numbers that we currently have in Afghanistan beyond a one-year commitment. . . . As I said, you cannot be on a permanent marathon, so there will be a period where we are required to do less than we have been doing since Sept. 11," Mr. McCallum said.
Over all, the report says the Canadian Forces are facing a $15-billion shortfall for major equipment purchases over the next five years. While the Canadian Forces are promising to buy billions of dollars worth of new vehicles in coming years, including helicopters and armoured vehicles, the report says the military will have to cope with inferior equipment while it waits.
In particular, the report says the Canadian Forces will lose air- and sea-cargo capabilities over the next five years. This will "severely limit participation in international peace and stability operations throughout this decade and the next."
While Mr. Martin has vowed to make defence a priority, the report says that any attempt at a quick fix is doomed to fail.
"The time required to replace major equipment, develop coherent military capabilities, and rebuild the 'trained effective strength' of the armed forces simply exceeds the mandate of the next government," the report says.
Today, Mr. McCallum will scold his NATO partners for their lack of political commitment to the war on terrorism in a speech in London, England.
Mr. McCallum will say that he cannot understand why no country from the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance has stepped up to replace Canada in Kabul next August.
"The engagement of only a few countries is not enough. Afghanistan needs greater commitment from all NATO nations. And so far, this commitment seems to be lacking," reads the written copy of Mr. McCallum's speech.
"For example, we still do not know who will take over from the Canadian Forces after we will have completed our one-year commitment, at the end of August, 2004. This should not be the case."
Mr. McCallum points out that NATO — "the most successful military alliance in history" — had only three helicopters at its disposal in Afghanistan and struggled to find a dozen more.
