That's a big leap from the 2000 election when the Greens scored less than 1 per cent of the vote nationally. In that campaign, they ran only 111 candidates. This time, Greens will be appearing in all 308 ridings, a presence that could well earn them a place in the campaign debates.
Their showing, all the more striking considering they have been ignored by the national media, is a threat to the New Democratic Party, which itself is on the rise. Combined, the two formations are at 23 per cent in the most recent national poll, which is about double what the left was scoring a few years ago.
With NDP/Greens at 23, the Conservatives at 28, and the Liberals at 35, Canadian voters are divvying up the left, right and centre quite proportionately. There is balance in the country.
Greens ascribe their recent success to two factors. One is moderating the radical image. Their leader, Jim Harris, chosen 14 months ago, is a writer of mainstream business books. He's 43, bilingual, and has Tory roots going back to Queen's University, where he joined the Young Progressive Conservatives.
What's important, he says, is to break down the left-right political barrier to broaden his party's reach.
His Green machine, which has strong youth appeal, is still stocked with cabbage-eaters. Environmentalist canons are still in place and are the heart of their of their appeal. Twenty years ago, says Mr. Harris, people wouldn't have believed we'd all be drinking bottled water today. "If we don't do something soon, in another 20 years we'll all be breathing bottled air."
The Toronto-based Harris, who has written several bestsellers, including The 100 Best Companies to Work for in Canada, is coupling environmentalism with fiscal responsibility. The Green Party proposes lowering taxes on income and investment. It would shift taxes away from income and onto land use. It wants balanced budgets and a reduced national debt.
Another reason for the party's rise is a change in the polling process. When most (though not all) pollsters make their survey phone calls, they now cite the Greens along with the other political parties. It's called prompting. If a party isn't named by a caller, it will score considerably lower in the polling totals. In the past, the Greens were never prompted.
Where they are particularly hurting the NDP is in British Columbia, with their 13 per cent. But in Ontario, their 5 per cent could cost the NDP seats as could their 7 per cent showing in the Maritimes.
NDP leader Jack Layton, who saw his party jump three points in the last poll, has an added concern. Mr. Harris is running against him and the incumbent Liberal Dennis Mills in the Toronto-Danforth riding. The Greens' leader doesn't have a chance against the two big contenders, but he could siphon enough votes away from Mr. Layton to help the colourful Mr. Mills retain the seat. Mr. Layton met with his upstart rival a few months ago. "Jack said, 'Why don't you close shop and join us?' " recalled Mr. Harris. "I wasn't interested."
The Greens have their best shot of winning a seat in the Victoria, B.C., area. In the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, Green candidate Andrew Lewis, a small businessman, won 25 per cent of the vote in the recent provincial election. Federally he feels his vote could be strong enough to win the seat, currently held by Conservative Gary Lunn.
The addition of the Canadian Greens to the parliamentary list in the next election is probably a long shot. But they appear to have become a force to be reckoned with.
For years, the talk was of a political split on the right. Now there is one developing on the left. For the moment, however, neither party is complaining too much. They're both growing.
