The Martin government appears on track to win a solid majority in the election expected to be called Sunday, but just a small change in fortunes in the key battleground of Ontario would plunge the Liberals into minority territory, according to a new Globe and Mail/CTV poll.
The Liberal government will go into this election at a lower level of support — 39 per cent — than in any vote since the 1993 election, when it took power, said Darrell Bricker, president of the Ipsos-Reid polling firm."This is their new normal, the low end of their expectations. Forty per cent is usually where they end up [on voting day] after starting in the mid- to high 40s."
As a result, he said, the party's hopes rest on a "razor's edge," the expectation that it can hold or even gain support during the campaign.
That is a tall order for a governing party during a competitive race, especially when, Ipsos-Reid finds, Prime Minister Paul Martin has no evident momentum.
"Voters remain volatile in major regions of the country, and this dynamic is fluid," Ipsos-Reid said.
A seat projection prepared by the polling company, based on the new results, says that the Liberals would win a potential 171 to 175 seats in a new Parliament with their 39-per-cent support. The party, under former prime minister Jean Chrétien, won 172 seats in the 2000 election.
At least 155 seats are required to form a majority government in the House of Commons.
The Conservative Party's 26-per-cent support in the latest survey translates into a possible 64 to 68 seats. The NDP would win 10 to 14 seats with its 15-per-cent support.
The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted over a seven-day period ending last Monday, queried 2,000 Canadians, twice the usual sample size.
The biggest challenge for the Liberals continues to be Quebec. Liberal support has declined three points to 28 per cent, while the Bloc Québécois now enjoys the support of 48 per cent of provincial voters, an increase of two percentage points.
In early May, the Liberals trailed the Bloc by only five points; now the spread is 20.
The latest results translate in Quebec into a potential 55 to 59 seats for the Bloc and 16 to 20 seats for the Liberals, essentially limiting Mr. Martin to victories in anglophone ridings in Montreal and along the Ontario-Quebec border.
"They are out of the game in francophone ridings," Mr. Bricker said.
Mr. Martin pleaded in a speech this week for Quebeckers to come home to the party best suited to govern the country, rather than parking their vote with a regional protest party such as the Bloc.
But Quebeckers don't seem to be listening, and victory in less than 20 ridings — the Liberals won 36 in 2000 — would represent a major embarrassment for Mr. Martin in his home province. (The Bloc became the Official Opposition in 1993 by winning 54 seats, leaving Mr. Chrétien with only 19 seats at home.) Despite his Quebec challenge, Ipsos-Reid says, Mr. Martin has the makings of a majority government in the Liberals' dominance of Ontario and Atlantic Canada and the likelihood that the party will pick up a few more seats in Western Canada.
Ontario is the key, Mr. Bricker said, and where the fight between Liberals and Conservatives is likely to be the most rough-and-tumble.
The latest poll shows the Liberals with 49-per-cent support, the Conservatives at 27 per cent and the NDP at 17 per cent, little changed from the last poll. That translates, Ipsos-Reid calculates, into victories for the Liberals in more than 90 of the province's 106 seats.
The Conservatives, with their present support, would gain perhaps 10 seats, mostly in Eastern Ontario.
But at 30 per cent provincewide, the Conservatives could double their seat total in Ontario to 20, according to Ipsos-Reid. About 33-per-cent support could mean 30 seats or more, perhaps as many as 40 because the gain is focused on the so-called 905 ring of suburban ridings outside Toronto and beyond, where Liberal MPs are vulnerable to challenges from a united-right party.
As recently as five weeks ago, the Conservatives stood at 32 per cent in Ontario.
"This whole election really swings on five points in Ontario," Mr. Bricker said. "A small change would have a big impact, driving the Liberals into a minority."
The Liberals now seem largely unchallenged in Atlantic Canada, with 49-per-cent support, and appear poised to win most of the region's 32 seats.
The Liberals and Conservatives are now battling on the Prairies, with Liberal support at 38 per cent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and the Conservatives at 33 per cent. The NDP trails with about 20 per cent.
The Conservatives appear set to hold almost all of Alberta's 28 ridings, likely leaving the Liberals with no more than the two seats they now hold. In British Columbia, however, the Ipsos-Reid analysis suggests the Liberals could pick up a few more of the province's 36 ridings, especially if those disgruntled voters who would never consider voting Liberal divide their allegiance between the Conservatives and the NDP.
"I can see the splits in some ridings going the Liberals' way," Mr. Bricker said.
The poll puts Liberal support in British Columbia at 33 per cent, the Conservatives at 31 per cent and the NDP at 27 per cent. The Green Party has the support of about one in 10 voters.
Ipsos-Reid's seat projection is particularly frustrating for the NDP. It won 13 seats in 2000 with 9 per cent of the vote. It is now projected to win about the same number of seats if its support holds at the present 15 per cent.
Seat projections for the Tories would mean their representation in the Commons would decline from the 73 seats they now have.
"This is shaping up to be the most interesting election we've had since at least 1988," Mr. Bricker said. "We haven't had a serious knock-down, drag-out election since then."
CAMPAIGN KICKOFF: A NATIONAL SURVEY
With Prime Minister Paul Martin preparing to issue a June 28 election call on Sunday, The Globe and Mail has a special three-part Ipsos-Reid poll that gauges the mood of voters. Today we look at party support; tomorrow and Saturday, we look at specific issues and voter volatility.
NATIONAL SUPPORT
Liberals: 39%
Conservatives: 26%
NDP: 15%
ONTARIO
Liberals: 49%
Conservatives: 27%
NDP: 17%
Federal party popularity
Question: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you be most likely to support?
Liberals: 39%
Conservatives: 26%
NDP: 15%
Bloc: 12%
Green: 5%
Provincial breakdown
British Columbia
Conservatives 31%
Liberals: 33%
NDP: 27%
Green Party: 7%
Ontario
Conservatives: 27%
Liberals: 49%
NDP: 17%
Green Party: 4%
Alberta
Conservatives: 50%
Liberals: 31%
NDP: 9%
Green Party: 5%
Quebec
Conservatives: 9%
Liberals: 28%
NDP: 6%
Bloc Québécois: 48%
Green Party: 5%
Sask./Man
Conservatives: 33%
Liberals: 38%
NDP: 20%
Green Party: 4%
Atlantic
Conservatives: 29%
Liberals: 49%
NDP: 19%
Green Party: 2%
SOURCE: IPSOS-REID
