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Landry says Bloc sweep will hasten referendum

From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

Quebec and Montreal — An expected Bloc Québécois landslide in next Monday's federal election will set the stage for a referendum on sovereignty in 2009, Parti Québécois Leader Bernard Landry says.

"There will be a referendum in five years," Mr. Landry predicted in anticipation of an unprecedented Bloc Québécois breakthrough.

"With about 60 Bloc members in Ottawa and the more than 40 seats we have in Quebec, sovereigntists will be stronger than ever," Mr. Landry told The Globe and Mail. His party holds 45 of the National Assembly's 125 seats.

Mr. Landry's comments, combined with recent remarks by several Bloc and PQ figures, reflect a growing confidence in the sovereignty movement that a big win next Monday would bring a renewed push for a referendum.

Before holding such a vote, the PQ would have to win the next provincial election, expected in 2007, a result commonly predicted given the unpopularity of Premier Jean Charest and the provincial Liberals, who defeated Mr. Landry last year.

The PQ has already indicated it will interpret a strong Bloc vote as a clear sign of support for sovereignty. In a recent letter to PQ members urging them to contribute to the Bloc campaign, Mr. Landry stressed the importance of the election for the sovereignty movement.

"Well-defended in Ottawa by an experienced team, we will place ourselves in a favourable position for the next Quebec election and a victory in the next referendum," Mr. Landry wrote.

An Ipsos-Reid poll done last weekend showed the Bloc stretching its lead, with 53 per cent of decided voters in Quebec, 30 points ahead of the second-place Liberals.

Ipsos-Reid says its seat projection -- based on recent polls -- would give the Bloc almost 60 of the province's 75 seats.

Unlike Mr. Landry, the Bloc has been playing down the impact of the federal vote on the sovereignty movement.


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Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe spent yesterday campaigning on the positive role he says his party would play in a minority government. He has said repeatedly that the Bloc would hold the balance of power responsibly, regardless of its ultimate goal of Quebec sovereignty.

In a bid to attract federalists, the separatist leader has even boasted that he could help the Canadian federation work more efficiently.

Yesterday in Montreal, Mr. Duceppe refused to speculate on the timing of a referendum, saying it is a provincial matter and years away. He said the current campaign is about federal issues such as the employment insurance program or the fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces.

Mr. Duceppe said that the Liberals in Quebec, led by former cabinet minister Stéphane Dion, are using scare tactics by urging Quebeckers not to vote for the Bloc because of its sovereignty agenda.

"Mr. Dion knows as well as I do that we're not deciding on the issue of sovereignty on the 28th [of June]. It's not a referendum. But Quebeckers will be placing their confidence in a sovereigntist party. This they won't be able to deny," he said.

Mr. Duceppe also rejected the analogy that the election is like the first period of a hockey game, with the second period being a PQ victory and the third a referendum.

"Whether it's the first period or the first quarter, you know . . . the question is, is it good news? Obviously, if the Bloc wins, it's good news for the sovereigntist movement.

"It would take an imbecile to say the opposite," he said.

As leader of the sovereignty movement, Mr. Landry has never formally committed his party to holding a referendum if re-elected. And unlike former PQ leader Jacques Parizeau, he has never defined a strategy to promote sovereignty or a clear plan to achieve it.

Moreover, Mr. Landry, having lost the provincial election last year, faces a vote of confidence at the PQ convention in June, 2005. With that in mind, he needs a massive Bloc victory to revive both the sovereignty agenda and his leadership as he fights to maintain his grip on the party.

Mr. Landry hopes to tap into the newfound hope stemming from a Bloc win and prove to his critics that his battle is being fought out of personal conviction rather than personal ambition.

But he also will have to come to grips with the enormous clout his sometimes rival Mr. Duceppe will wield in Ottawa.

Regardless of the result of the coming vote, Mr. Duceppe said, "I won't say it's a victory for sovereignty, because we're not deciding sovereignty."

Still, he acknowledged that a large Bloc victory next week would be positive for the sovereigntist movement.

"It's always better to win than to lose," he said.

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