Sorting out a minority

June 15

An article that appeared in the New York Times last week begins like this "Imagine if the 2000 presidential election had been held in Canada instead of the United States. Political scientists say Al Gore would have run away with the election; George W. Bush would have won no more than 1 of Canada's 10 provinces…The presumed one-sided return says a lot about the differences between Canada and the United States….and Canadians are in general agreement. They're liberals." The article goes on to say, however, "If Canadian voters have ever had a chance to break or interrupt the Liberal Party's monopoly on power; the next parliamentary election on June 28 could be it."

The New York Times is not wrong; the party that has governed this country for the past decade is in a fight for its life. For the first time in three elections, there is a realistic chance that someone else will govern. And all indications are, whoever prevails, there will likely be a minority government. Canada has had nine minority governments in its history. Since 1867 the Liberals have formed government 21 times with five of those in minority and the Conservatives 16 times with five of those in minority. In 2004 we will not stray too far from the past as it is likely, actually almost a certainty, the next government will be formed by either the Liberals or the Conservatives.

What is more uncertain, however, is who will take on the role of "king maker." While it is very unlikely that either the NDP or the Bloc Québécois will form the next government, the increasing probability of a minority government has made them big players in the remaining weeks of this election. The leader of a minority government will be forced to choose a political partner if they hope to move their agenda forward during the next parliamentary session and this partner will probably be the NDP or the Bloc Québécois.

Both the NDP and the Bloc are aware of their elevated significance to this election and each has made statements about its possible role in a minority government. The Bloc has stated that a women's right to an abortion, Canada's support of the Kyoto accord and financial help for Quebec's aerospace industry are non-negotiable portions of its platform. The NDP has said that it would push for a new deal for Canada's cities and municipalities, and that for it electoral reform is a non-negotiable issue.

Partnerships in politics, like those in business, are about concessions and compromise. It becomes about priorities and moving a little closer to the centre from entrenched positions. Each party must decide what is most important to it in its own platform, but also must be willing to let certain things go. The Liberals or the Conservatives will not succeed in governing for very long in minority if they are unsuccessful in gaining the support of another party. The question becomes, who will make the best political partner?

I doubt that we will see a partnership between the Liberals and the Conservatives. In any subsequent election, it would be difficult for either to prove their difference in agenda if forced to strategically align themselves with each other this term. I also doubt that we will see a partnership between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. Even if the two parties agreed on several issues, the separatist Bloc Québécois' and the federalist Liberals' fundamental definitions of Canada are so different that partnership would be improbable. And finally, I would not think that the NDP and the Conservatives will end up in partnership as their social agendas differ so much.

It appears that should the Conservatives win a minority, they would partner with the Bloc. I am not very comfortable with the Conservatives and a potentially neo-conservative agenda leading Canada. Though, I get some comfort from the fact that the Bloc is more socially liberal than the Conservatives and could serve to temper any extreme changes the Conservatives may attempt to make to Canada's social fabric. But am I content in letting a party for whom I cannot vote, as I do not live in Quebec, help govern Canada? Not really. A party whose reason for being is to separate from Canada should not be handed the reigns.

If the Liberals were to win a minority, their probable partner would be the NDP. This for me is a more palatable option and I think potentially a good partnership for Canada. A mix of Paul Martin's fiscal responsibility with the socially conscious NDP may not be an easy partnership but would likely produce results that appeal and do right by most Canadians.

I do not think that a minority government is the worst thing that could happen to Canada. In fact, I think that it is probably the right political answer for this election. Having been governed by three successive Liberal majorities, Canadians should welcome the opportunity to closely scrutinize a new government and ask for a level of accountability much higher than they have been able to demand in the last 10 years. The possibility of going back to the polls in a year or two if the new government suffers a vote of non-confidence should also not be looked at as a negative. At least we get another opportunity to express our preferences. Contrast this with the 2000 election in the United States where Mr. Bush who received less than half of the popular vote is able to govern for his entire four year term.

When it comes time for me to vote in this election, I will try to remember that I am not only helping to choose the next government of Canada but also a potential "king maker" whose power and influence should not be overlooked. I hope you remember this too.