My strategic vote?

While this week marks the halfway point for voters in Canada, the requirements for casting an absentee ballot makes it the final week of the campaign for me. I've received notice from the Canadian High Commission in Pretoria that I must submit my ballot by June 15 in order for a special diplomatic courier run to make it to Ottawa by election date.

At the mid-point of the election campaign, it's hard to believe reports that if current trends continue, the Conservatives under Stephen Harper are poised to form a minority government. It's difficult to discern from my vantage point in Africa whether this represents a fundamental shift in the mood and values of Canadians or whether this is voter anger directed at Paul Martin and the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal.

Whatever the case, the prospects of a neoconservative government in Ottawa is chilling, especially after experiencing the Common Sense Revolution in Ontario under former-premier Mike Harris. That radical and ultimately disastrous experiment in massive tax and spending cuts, deregulation and privatization, combined a potent mix of ideology and intolerance that resulted in a deeply polarized province.

I would expect a neoconservative government in Ottawa would pursue similar policies and have a similarly divisive, regressive and turbulent impact on the country. On this, I don't need to hear Paul Martin's desperate fear mongering about a Conservative government rolling back minority rights or reopening the abortion debate. If anything, I find the predictable and increasingly shrill warnings coming out of the Liberal camp insulting to my intelligence and indicative of the party's lack of substantive policies on which to fight this campaign.

That voters in Ontario, who not too long ago repudiated the neoconservative agenda, are willing to chance a national neoconservative government is shocking and is perhaps indicative of the deep resentment and volatility that seems to be simmering in the electorate. Although I feel somewhat disconnected from the prevailing national mood in Canada, I too feel the Liberals ought to be punished for their arrogance and fiscal mismanagement. But at the same time, I don't believe it makes much sense to punish ourselves by punishing the Liberals.

Given recent developments, my first priority is to vote strategically against the possibility of a Conservative-led minority government. My subsequent priorities, which are directly related to the first, is to send a strong message to the Liberals about their lax ethical standards and to ensure a progressive social agenda. It's a lot to hope for with one single vote, but if a minority government is increasingly likely, then it might as well be a Liberal-NDP alliance, which would conveniently address all three of my priorities.

In the specific context of the local riding in which I will be casting my absentee ballot, the race is difficult to gage, limited as I am to the Internet for my campaign reports. Voting strategically requires access to riding-level information and without it, I may very well be forced to vote on the basis of my principles rather than for a preferred outcome.

In the riding of Don Valley West in Toronto, my options are: John Godfrey (L), David Thomas (NDP), David Turnbull (C) and Serge Abbat (GP). Depending on how well the Tory candidate David Turnbull is polling, my vote will go to either David Thomas or John Godfrey. While my core principles and basic values might incline me towards supporting the Green Party candidate, the conservative threat is too real and frightening for me to risk reducing the impact of my single vote by voting for a fringe candidate. The choice will be particularly difficult for me since I've known John Godfrey for a number of years in a professional capacity and he's not only a lovely individual, but also a person with deep integrity, despite his political affiliations.

So, even while the Liberal's national campaign increasingly turns negative and adopts an attack mode, my focus will shift to the local riding. Elections are won and lost at the riding level and this one will be no different. I will vote for the individual candidate who will serve both my strategic and policy preferences, not for a national party leader, whatever he may implore me to do.