My vote

Riding: Central Nova

On Monday , June 28, I will be voting Liberal. Why? Tip O'Neil, former speaker of the House of Representatives, is famous for the quote "All politics is local". For me it is not. My riding is Central Nova and our MP is Peter MacKay. Mr. MacKay appears to be a capable MP, and certainly a well spoken individual. His constant harping of the Liberals lack of credibility was just about all the hypocrisy I could handle given his recent history. Having said that, he certainly has the most to gain and the most to lose in this campaign. His steps were not timid, and not without great risk, but you can't steal second base without taking your foot of first, so I have to give him some marks for adding some interest to the election.

I'll vote Liberal not in spite of their record, but because of their record. Mr. Martin has a proven track record on fiscal management that is second to none in the industrialized world. No government is not without problems and the sponsorship scandal, and the logistics of gun control have to be cleaned up and streamlined respectively, but overall we are on as solid a fiscal footing as we have had in years. I expect this to continue. Mr. Harper is simply too much of a risk. His fiscal positions don't add up, are misdirected, and would require massive program cuts. That philosophy only widens the gap between the rich and the poor. That's not my Canada.

In the area of foreign policy, I have to say the Liberal ability to separate the war on terror from the Iraq war was huge. The knee jerk reaction of both arms of the Conservatives to join the US neoconservatives in their ill advised adventure was disheartening, displayed poor knowledge of the situation, and leads me to question their ability to judge global issues. There is no contest in this area.

In the area of defence, there has to be some movement to be better able to support our foreign policy objectives. The Liberals have not made this a priority, and the Conservative foreign policy does not interest me. The only question that remains troubling is missile defence, where NDP policy seems more viable, and the one issue that would bring me to vote NDP, because their stance is 100% correct.

The dark horse issue that looms is Quebec sovereignty. Only one national party will be able to convince Quebeckers that they have much to contribute to Canada. A Conservative majority would all but destroy that. Anything less then a full commitment to bilingualism would jump start an argument that none of us really want.

My predictions? The polls are so very similar to the 1965 election. I've never been right before, but since you asked: Liberals 125 seats, Conservative 104, Bloc 58, NDP 21. One thing is certain. Ontario will determine the status of any minority government, as the numbers could easily be reversed. Unless there is massive movement in Ontario we will be doing this all again in the fall of 2005. I'll be back after the election to tell you why I was wrong.