NO - by a whisker
Firm rejection of the status quo is only clear result
Tuesday, October 31, 1995
Montreal PQ
BY RHEAL SEGUIN - Quebec Bureau
MONTREAL - The only thing certain about yesterday's slim victory for the No side is that Canada will have to change.
No longer can Quebec be considered a province like all the others. No longer will Quebeckers, especially francophone Quebeckers, accept the federation status quo. Without major reforms, Canada's crisis seems certain to continue.
Despite losing for the second time in 15 years, Quebec sovereigntists have taken a major leap toward making the province an independent country.
But the defeat clearly angered Premier Jacques Parizeau, who immediately blamed the province's business community and the ethnic communities for the loss.
"It is true that we were beaten by the power of money and the ethnic vote. That only means that the next time instead of getting 60 per cent of the (francophone) votes we will get 63 or 64 per cent," Mr. Parizeau said.
Mr. Parizeau's statement made it clear the sovereigntist camp has given up on the ethnic vote in the province. He also gave every indication that another referendum was likely.
"In the days to come, we will receive insults. We will be told that we don't know what we want. Three-fifths of us voted Yes," he said in reference to francophone voters. "That wasn't enough but soon we will have enough. We will get our country," he said, his voice shaking with disappointment and anger.
"We fought hard and we did indicate what we wanted. In a case like that what do we do? We spit in our hands and we start over," Mr. Parizeau said.
"I would have wanted so much that it (the referendum) was won. We were so close to having our country. It's been delayed a bit, but not long. This time we won't wait 15 years," he said in reference to the last referendum held in 1980.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Lucien Bouchard indicated he will stay in Ottawa to prevent any attempt by the federal government to pursue its agenda and use the the slim federalist victory to crush Quebec's nationalist aspirations.
"There are people in Ottawa who believe that they now have an open path but they are making a mistake," Mr. Bouchard said.
Mr. Bouchard shied away from the aggressiveness Mr. Parizeau expressed against the ethnic communities.
The political map of Quebec changed drastically with yesterday's result. Sovereigntists made considerable gains in almost every predominantly francophone riding. Even Prime Minister Jean Chretien's riding of Mauricie voted for sovereignty.
Deputy Premier Bernard Landry said yesterday that another referendum would take place in the near future if the Yes side were to lose by a small margin.
"It is an inescapable fate," Mr. Landry commented last night as the results trickled in.
The slim No win forces Mr. Parizeau to review the plan he had laid out for his government and the sovereignty movement and means a sharply different role for Mr. Bouchard, who will likely be groomed to take over the leadership of the Parti Quebecois some time during the current mandate.
"Quebec has won," said a disappointed Pauline Marois who told a crowd at the Palais des Congres yesterday that achievement of Quebec independence is only a matter of time.
Sovereigntists made considerable gains in all but four regions: East- end Montreal, West-end Montreal, the Outaouais and the Eastern Townships.
Once frustration and the disappointment for sovereigntists of such a close defeat have subsided, the dream of a new nation will live on in the minds of many Quebeckers.
With the slim victory, federalists have bought time. It will quickly run out if they prove incapable of responding to Quebec's traditional constitutional demands for greater powers.
The size of the francophone vote in support of the sovereignty option cannot be ignored by the rest of Canada as it looks for way to heal the wounds.
Mr. Parizeau won respectable support for his option in large part because of Mr. Bouchard's popularity. That popularity propelled sovereignty as an option beyond the level anticipated by most pundits. The staying power of the sovereignty option may largely depend on Mr. Bouchard's ability to keep the dream alive.
With Mr. Bouchard squarely centre stage on the Canadian political agenda, and the federal government not anxious for another hostile confrontation soon, Ottawa will be under pressure to introduce changes to the current federal system unlike anything it had been willing to contemplate until now.
Last night's close result also raises serious questions about the future of Mr. Parizeau. Pressure will certainly mount on Mr. Bouchard to take over from Mr. Parizeau.
On the strength of yesterday's result, Mr. Parizeau is likely to stay on during a transition period aimed at paving the way for Mr. Bouchard as leader of the PQ. The party is greatly indebted to Mr. Bouchard, considered the most popular politician in Quebec. After his almost fatal illness last December, personal reasons would be the only obstacle preventing Mr. Bouchard from taking over the PQ leadership.
But in the short term, Mr. Parizeau is expected to reconvene the National Assembly at the end of November and introduce a major shuffle of his cabinet while pursuing his mandate that includes a major reform of Quebec's education system, changes to manpower-training programs and an overhaul of the province's social programs.
The Quebec government will also proceed with its plan to decentralize many provincial programs, including regional economic development, passing control to regional authorities. But these reforms will now have to be defined in the context of a highly indebted provincial government whose financial abilities will be greatly limited by the proposed cuts in federal transfer payments.
The responsibility will fall on Mr. Parizeau to take whatever tough decisions must be taken to bring Quebec's public finances in order. The way would then be paved for Mr. Bouchard to take over without being burdened by unpopular decisions.
As a result of last night's close call, it may become more difficult to ignore Quebec's opposition to social-program cuts. The same resistance forced Mr. Parizeau in the campaign to attack the country's business establishment and the right-wing policies introduced in many provinces and supported by a growing number of federal politicians.
But the cash-strapped federal government is also under enormous pressure to bring the country's deficit under control and faces the nearly impossible task of having to satisfy demands by the international financial community while avoiding adding to the tension in Quebec.
The PQ government expects Ottawa to pursue its agenda regardless of the call for change from Quebec. Mr. Chretien made no formal commitment to bring about constitutional change except to pursue the recognition of Quebec as a distinct society. He also raised the possibility of acquiescing to Quebec's demand for a veto over future constitutional change. If such a proposal is put on the table, it will not come until 1997 when the current Constitution requires that a formal constitutional meeting be held to review the amending formula.
The Quebec Liberal Party will have time to define a new constitutional position in preparation for the next provincial election, which would come shortly after Mr. Parizeau has handed over the party's leadership to his successor. Facing the dire prospect of having to go head-to-head with Mr. Bouchard, it is likely the Liberals will want to face the electorate with a new leader.
Having come so close to defeat, Quebec Liberal Leader Daniel Johnson's days as party leader might be numbered. The Quebec Liberals will want to distance themselves from the federal Liberal Party and seek a leader who can rally support among francophone voters.
But if Mr. Bouchard does decide to take over the leadership of the PQ before the end of the current government's mandate, which could extend into 1999, he will have to decide whether to stay on as leader of the Official Opposition in Ottawa and determine whether the Bloc Quebecois takes part in the next federal election, which must be held before the end of 1998.
These are important dates for the sovereigntists who will now try to build the momentum from this campaign into the next.